Is the GBP/USD set to reconquer 1.3000 into the start of the trading week?

  • master
  • 12.02.2019
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GBP economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events February 11, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

This week starts with a packed economic calendar for the GBP. In addition to the GDP data for Q4/2018, traders will also receive data regarding industrial production.

While the consensus for the GDP Growth rate currently lies at 0.3% after 0.6% for Q3/2018, industrial production is expected to come in at 0.2%, after -0.4% movement for the month before. Thus, it seems fair to expect that after the BoE statement last Thursday, widespread optimistic readings could initiate a bullish spike in GBP/USD.

In last Thursday’s statement, the BoE declared that amid Brexit uncertainty, it predicts the weakest outlook for the UK economy since 2009, sharply downgrading its 2019 economic outlook. With every dataset coming in higher than expected (particularly in regards to sectors like industrial production), a bullish Pound Sterling should be expected.

That said, a reading above expectations can push the GBP/USD back above 1.3000. If bullish momentum persists, further gains up to 1.3050/3070 seem possible.

Nevertheless, the sustainability of such a move should be questioned due to the ongoing mess surrounding Brexit and UK/EU tensions. There are still no new developments on this, so traders anxiously await any news regarding the Brexit deadline on March 29 – meaning that an attempt to break above 1.3270/3300 shouldn’t be expected in the near future.

On the other hand: as long as GBP/USD trades above 1.2800/2830 USD on a 4-hour timeframe, the mode stays neutral with a slight bullish touch.

GBP/USD daily index chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on GBP/USD 4-Hour-chart (between November 13, 2017, to February 8, 2019). Accessed: February 8, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the GBP/USD fell by 5.9%, in 2015, it fell by 5.4%, in 2016, it fell by 16.3%, in 2017, it increased by 7.4%, in 2018, it fell by 5.6%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 22.9%.

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