The US-Dollar currently finds itself in a very difficult spot with 10-US-T-Note yields dropping below 3% after the dovish comments from FED chairman Powell last week on Wednesday. In combination with the reignition of trade war fears after the arrest of the Huawei CFO, with the news becoming official on Thursday morning (1 December, 2018), (interestingly enough around the time Trump and Xi agreed on their truce in Buenos Aires) and with the JPY catching a bid in growing ‘risk off’ market environment, the USD/JPY currency pair seems to have a chance for a push back below 112.00 into the weekly close.
Source: Economic Events 05 December 2018 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar
This is especially true if Non-Farm-Payrolls come in lower than expected (< 180,000), confirming the mixed data set from the employment side after yesterday’s ADP employment numbers. With such a reading, the already initiated push below 112.50 to new December lows could take on further momentum, and could confirm the structure of falling highs and lows on a 4-hour-chart, and then level the path lower into the region of the October lows around 111.50:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on USDJPY 4-Hour chart (between 08 October 2018 to 06 December 2018). Accessed: 06 December 2018 at 11:00 PM GMT – Please Note: Forecasts such as this are not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
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