All in all we should expect a quite unspectacular weekly close, not only in equities, but also in the (Forex) FX markets due to Thanksgiving yesterday, and Black Friday today. Nevertheless, the technical picture in the USD/CAD currency pair looks interesting, and today’s Canadian inflation data could level the path for the upcoming price action over the next week of trading.
Source: Economic Events 23 November 2018 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar
On the 4-hour chart below we can clearly spot a sequence of higher highs, lows, and a uptrend channel since the beginning of October. After USD/CAD pushed to its highest levels since June 2018 on Wednesday, the Loonie could gain some lost ground back, most likely due to oil prices finally at least catching a small bid, and ceasing its downward spiral.
Nevertheless: as long as USD/CAD trades above 1.3130 another leg higher, a test of the June highs of around 1.3370/3400 has a high probability. This is especially true if Canadian inflation today underlines its surprisingly low reading for September, and comes in as expected at around 2.2%, reducing chances of a sooner rather than later rate hike from the BoC.
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on USDCAD 4-hour chart (between 24 September 2018 to 22 November 2018) – Accessed: 22 November 2018 at 11:00 PM GMT
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