Even though the ECB rate decision didn’t deliver much new last Thursday, and with Italy offering a 2.04% budget deficit target to Brussels, the outlook into the yearly-close looked all in all promising for Euro bulls, with a stint back towards 1.1500 being a serious option. Already last Friday this outlook darkened: with published PMIs showing that German and also Euro Zone business activity expanding at the slowest pace since four years, while French business activity fell to its lowest level since February 2016, pointing to a contraction in terms of business activity.
Source: Economic Events 17 December 2018 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar
With the ending of the ECB QE program this month, the drop and weekly close came slightly above 1.1300 in the EUR/USD currency pair, with no big surprise and it levels the path to lower prices in the days to come, with a re-test of the current yearly lows around 1.1220 becoming an serious option. An acceleration on the downside could take place if EZ inflation data comes in lower than expected, and the short-term the region around 1.1330 should act as a serious resistance to a potential short-trigger:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on EURUSD 4-hour-chart (between 25 October 2018 to 14 December 2018). Accessed: 14 December 2018 at 11:00 PM GMT – Please Note: Forecasts such as this are not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
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