Market Analysis: Gold with a short-term bounce to 1,300 USD, can we expect new yearly highs?

  • master
  • 05.02.2019
  • Comments Off on Market Analysis: Gold with a short-term bounce to 1,300 USD, can we expect new yearly highs?

Gold Bounces Upward

After the non-farm payrolls were published last Friday (with 312,000 being significantly above expectations of 166,000, while average hourly earnings (MoM) disappointed with 0.1% against an expected 0.3%), the economic calendar is relatively thin as we enter the start of the week.

February 4 Market Events

Source: Economic Events February 4, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

Nevertheless, the technical picture for Gold remains very interesting for the bulls. While one of the short-term bullish seasonal trends for Gold ends tomorrow (in our market analysis from January 11, we pointed out a bullish seasonal window for Gold arising between January 14 and February 5, which again played out really well), the picture on the daily time-frame stays bullish as long as we trade above 1,275 USD.

While the mode looks a little extended on the upside, short-term pullbacks should be taken into account. Bulls will carefully be watching the region around 1,295/299 USD as a potential long trigger – another jump upwards with a target around the 2017/2018 yearly highs of approximately 1,360 USD becomes a serious option.

Graph showing Upward Gold Prediction

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between December 19, 2017 and February 1, 2019). Accessed: February 1, 2019 at 10:00pm GMT. – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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