Market Analysis: Uncertainty around Brexit remains, but GBP/USD nevertheless bullish

  • master
  • 16.03.2019
  • Comments Off on Market Analysis: Uncertainty around Brexit remains, but GBP/USD nevertheless bullish
<p><a href=”https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/brexit-talks-deal-likely”><img style=”width:auto;” class=”img-responsive” src=”https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/19ec98ff75d01cc53d44b09e221cf52a.png” style=”” alt=”Today’s economic events calendar” rel=””></a></p><p><em>Source: Economic Events March 15, 2019 – </em><a href=”https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/forex-calendar”><em>Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar</em></a></p>
<p>Even though it appears at first glance that nothing new has come from the recent Brexit talks, the chances of a deadline extension a ‘Soft-Brexit’ deal look to have increased – at least it has in the eyes of market participants, who pushed the pound/dollar currency pair to its highest levels since July 2018. </p><p>Theresa May couldn’t find a majority for her second deal last Tuesday, being voted down with 391 to 242. Parliament also rejected a no-deal Brexit on Wednesday, and voted for an extension of the Brexit deadline past March 29. </p><p>While the amendment is not legally binding, and does not on its own change the Brexit deadline, as <a href=”https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1106115929539334144″ target=”_blank”>a tweet from European Commission president Tusk</a> describes, but this also suggests that the EU does not want the UK to leave without a deal. </p><p>With such a potential deadline extension in mind, and both sides clearly favouring a deal (even though the EU clearly points towards the UK), the GBP currently seems undervalued particularly next to a weak-seeming US dollar. </p><p>That said, a break above 1.3350/3400 in the coming days seems likely, and if the next week’s UK economic data convinces the BoE to keep the stated ‘wait-and-see’-approach, a push up to 1.3600/3650 seems likely. </p><p>From a technical perspective, this bullish scenario is sustained as long as the GBP/USD trades above 1.2950. </p><p><a href=”https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/brexit-talks-deal-likely”><img style=”width:auto;” class=”img-responsive” src=”https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/85c78155a4de808dd847917ac58fd8d9.png” style=”” alt=”GBP/USD index daily chart” rel=””></a></p><p><em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href=”https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5″><em>MT5</em></a><em> with </em><a href=”https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se”><em>MT5-SE Add-on</em></a><em> GBP/USD Daily chart (between December 12, 2017 to March 14, 2019). Accessed: March 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em></p><p>In 2014, the value of the GBP/USD fell by 5.9%, in 2015, it fell by 5.4%, in 2016, it fell by 16.3%, in 2017, it increased by 7.4%, in 2018, it fell by 5.6%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 22.9%.</p><p><a href=”https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5″><a href=”https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/brexit-talks-deal-likely”><img style=”width:auto;” class=”img-responsive” src=”https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/e919d48e688f8bf89224bf39ec85aa8b.png” style=”” alt=”Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!” rel=””></a></a></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. 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