Market Analysis: USDCAD – will the BoC be delivering another reason to not hike in January today?

  • master
  • 22.12.2018
  • Comments Off on Market Analysis: USDCAD – will the BoC be delivering another reason to not hike in January today?

Market Analysis - USDCAD Trading

We’ve arrived at the last trading day of the year for FX traders in 2018 (even though FX markets are open from Wednesday 26 till Friday, 28th December; for an overview of the Trading Hour Schedule for the 2018 Christmas & New Year Holiday Period click here), will be interesting for USDCAD traders. After the FED decision on Wednesday, and the dovish hike which wasn’t as dovish as some market participants may have expected, while WTI kept on tumbling, reaching its lowest levels since 2017, the USDCAD FX pair stabilized slightly below 1.3500, and around its yearly highs.

Forex Calendar - Economic Announcements

Source: Economic Events 21 December 2018 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

If data sets for Canadian retail sales and GDP come in below expectations, as inflation data for November on Wednesday already did, Loonie traders would find another reason why the BoC could keep interest rates at the current level next month, leaving the advantage in USDCAD on the side of the bulls. In general, the overall device in the USDCAD pair seems to be to “buy the dip”, and as long as USDCAD trades above 1.3150, and further gains with a target around the 2017 early highs of around 1.3780 over the next weeks have a high probability to be seen.

USDCAD Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on USDCAD daily chart (between 21 September 2017 to 20 December 2018). Accessed: 20 December 2018 at 11:00 PM GMT — Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2013, the value of the USDCAD increased by 7.1%, in 2014, it increased by 9.4%, in 2015, it increased by 19.1%, in 2016 it fell by 2.9%, and in 2017 it fell by 6.4%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 26.8%.

Trade Forex

Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.

Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.